I’ve often told people about alarming minority high school graduation rates from a study term called Graduation Rates: Real Kids, Real Numbers. This study introduced the phrase Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) which refers to the concept of, given the likelihood a ninth grader will graduate high school in exactly four years would become a high-school graduate, any other student would be considered a dropout.

I’ve repeated information I learned that fully 50% of African-American and Hispanic students will dropout of school this year – something that has really unnerved me. Now, mind you I am not complaining about this ground-breaking study, I’m only speaking to my learning of a newer study that attempts to dispel such horrific graduation rates and explains they are still horrible but, not quite as bad as thought.

In the brief for the first study the author wrote:

During the past year, we have repeatedly heard that the nation’s public schools are facing a high school completion crisis. My research at the Urban Institute, for example, reveals an overall graduation rate of 68 percent. Even more troubling, there’s only a fifty-fifty chance for a student from a historically disadvantaged minority group to finish, the same odds as flipping a coin (Swanson 2004). But I am not alone in this assessment. Findings from independent studies conducted at a variety of institutions—Johns Hopkins University, Boston College, the Manhattan Institute, and others—all point in a similar direction (Balfanz and Legters 2004; Greene and Foster 2003; Haney et al. 2004). Far too many of our youth, particularly poor and minority students, are failing to complete high school with a diploma.

I’ m writing this post because I am not contradicting that research, I’m just frustrated that another study shows significantly different numbers. Better graduations rates hurray but, the significant difference is what bothers me.

From what I understood, the need for this Gates Foundation-funded study, was because reformers needed baseline statistics but, our federal government didn’t even start tracking national graduation rates until a few years ago. Also, from what I now understand, there is no consistent state-by-state longitudinal measurement standard or, tool for that matter, that can be used to track a student throughout their educational-lives, regardless of when and where they attended school.

My discovery of a 2006 study by the Economic Policy Institute has thrown everything in the air for me and that’s ok. I don’t like being an alarmist on one hand but, I also don’t like seeking huge disparities in our educational system because of what color our skin is. The study I’m referring to is called Rethinking High School Graduation Rates and Trends which gives the history of our government’s graduation-tracking methods (seemingly largely based on census results) compared to the CPI mentioned above and the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS).

This latter study gives their argument that the national graduation rate with a regular diploma is between 80-83%. They further say that from 69-75% of African-Americans graduate with a regular diploma and, of the those who do dropout nearly half end up getting a GED certificate. Hispanic students are reported to graduate with a regular diploma are from 61-74% with from 9-12% receiving a GED certificate. The study also shows that the gap between whites and blacks is about 15% and between whites and Hispanics is 23%.

One major observation is what is termed the 9th grade ‘bulge effect’ where there are significantly more 9th graders reported in the above graduation surveys compared to those students leaving 8th grade the year earlier.

What’s the most bothersome is that our scholars are so widely divided on what our high school graduation rates are. With at least a basic high-school education one is reported to make over $1 million more than a dropout, contribute to society nearly $800k value in their lifetime vs. cost over $5k, and experience considerably less incarceration levels.

One would think, with so much on the line, we would make it a priority to establish a nationwide standard for data collection and reporting so that, as a nation, we can all focus our energies on the solutions that will significantly reduce the gap between our races as well as significantly raise the level of all high school graduates. As the authors of the latter report imply … we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for this to happen. That’s unfortunate as they’re probably right.

That’s my thoughts, please share yours…